Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon lead the way for the Colorado Avalanche.
By Ronnie Yurick (@ColoAvsTalk)
During the past season, the Colorado Avalanche core players endured criticism from media, sports analyst, fan, and even the coaching staff. Having been called out near the end of the season by head coach Patrick Roy, multiple players have said in various forms through different interviews that “were expected to win. We know that. If we don’t, we understand that there will be changes made.” So for the core, the time is now. After the previous two seasons of all-around poor team play, our Big Guys haven’t been producing as much as some of us think they’re capable of. Let’s take a look at the core guys’ numbers last year and how I think they respond with pressure in 2016-2017.
Start with Captain, Gabriel Landeskog. He finished last year with 75 games played, 20 goals-33assist-53points. For a team that struggled through the year and finished 20th in the league, these are respectable numbers for the leader of the team and the only true power-forward we have. Are they great? No, but no one of the team was last year. If Landeskog can find chemistry through Roy’s constant line-jumbling, stay healthy and the team play better, he can hit his full potential. Next season though, im predicting a year in which we grow mightily but still struggle. I’m going to peg #92 at 25goals-35assist-60points in a year where he progresses some, yet still struggles with the team.
Through wild rumors all off-season and since the deadline, a crazy goal celebration that caught attention from head coach, Matt Duchene is an elite offensive player. He has shown elite speed with above average hands and can finish pretty plays. Splitting 2015-16 on wing and center positions, he tallied 30goals-29assists-59points in 76 games. Again, these numbers do not reflect how talented some of our forwards really are because of how much we have struggled as a team. Very different than Landeskog, Duchene is a softer-prettier player who is mainly offense. He has the ability and has shown he can produce at close to a point-per-game ratio in past seasons and not many people doubt that he can do that. He did excel at the wing position when he got extremely hot in November. Maybe we slot him at the wing more permanently and that boost his play. He needs to keep his legs healthy and if he does that, no reason I don’t see him at least matching last season, and should improve on it if he wants to prove he can bring a cup to Denver. I’ll give a prediction of 28goals-39assist-67points. While boosting his offensive numbers, I think through a better powerplay, I think he continues to be a slightly negative defensive player – which is fine, if he can produce at his capable rate.
Nathan MacKinnon. The Kid. Even faster than Duchene, better stick-handling and about an equal shot – coming off of a huge raise and new contract, there is no reason why Nate should not explode this season. Everyone knows his talent is there. Everyone knows he’s a threat every shift. Watching most Avs games, he has had bad luck whether it be games where he hits 4 post in one period or he gets an unfortunate injury. Last year MacK managed to get 21goals-31assist-52points in 72 games. MacKinnon is my guy who I think will have a huge year and make his new contract look like a bargain, even if the team succeeds or struggles, I put my belief in him breaking out. While being bigger than Duchene, faster than him and better hands, there’s no reason he shouldn’t hit the 70 point mark. I’ll go big, Nathan MacKinnon (if healthy) finishes 2016-2017 top 10 in NHL scoring while getting 33goals- 45assists-78points. Coach Roy just needs to let him have consistent line mates, use him smartly and then he will go boom. Watch him this year.
A newer guy who will be apart of our core for a very long time, Mikko Rantanen. He played only 9 games with us to reserve a year on his ELC so his NHL numbers are irrelevant but as a 19 year old, he finished the AHL with 24goals-36assists-60points in only 52 games. That is insane, especially thinking he missed time for the NHL and international play and doing this as a 18/19 year old. Rantanen is 6’4 and plays wing, which the Avs are lacking and has all the belief from the front office. This kid won’t ever win scoring titles but will play very hard in all areas and provide top 6 numbers. For his official rookie season, I’ll give him a prediction of 17goals-24assist-41points if he plays most games and remains healthy. He will be a physical force for the Avalanche for a loooooong time.
Now we shift the core to our defensive players. First up, fresh off a resigning TODAY, Tyson Barrie. Barrie is a offensive-defenseman who lacks in size but makes up for it with excellent skating and offensive prowess. His past few seasons have been successful offensively posting 13goals-36assists-49points in 2015-16 and he often puts up points in crunch time. He is a clutch player who can push the play in the O-zone whenever you need it. Personally, I think his defensive liabilities outweigh his offensive abilities since he is a defenseman. I think he scarily fits the role of a D who puts up points for a few seasons and then dies out quickly because he is relatively one-dimensional. I think he may take a step back next year, as our defense will be young and will go through growing-pains and I’m predicting him to put up around 10goals-37assist-47points. Still, a very respectable number for a defenseman and he is now locked up for 4 years at $5.5 AAV.
Erik Johnson. A defenseman who is considered a two-way D, and also has been getting many praises for his leadership ability showed 11goals-16assists-27points in the previous season. His goal numbers are very good for a physical and stable defenseman but we all hope he can improve his passing play, leading to more assist. One problem the Avalanche have is break-outs, and if he and company can improve their first pass out of the d-zone, it’ll lead to better offensive numbers for all defenseman. EJ should get around 8goals-25assists-33points next year, if all goes well.
Here’s a unique one…. Calvin Pickard AND Semyon Varlamov. Why both? Because both of their play will be closely watched as we go through this season since we have an expansion draft next year. Avalanche need one of these guys to really take the next step. Now, Varly has shown he has the ability to be completely unbeatable at times, but is inconsistent and that’s a major worry. What happens if the team plays well down the stretch and he has his cold streak and it cost us a playoff spot? One thing I like in a goalie, is consistency. You don’t need to be an all-star every night, but you can’t give up 5 goals on 21 shots one night against a bad team than go and shutout a top team on 55 shots, which happens with Varly. Pickard is our young guy in the net and has limited experience, and that is the worry with him. If I’m coach or manager, I am going to give more games and more important games to Pickard to see where he is at as a goalie and see how much he really can do. The most ideal situation would be to have Pickard play outstanding and prove he is worthy of a starting spot, opening up the opportunity for Las Vegas to select Varlamov and take his contract off our hands as we go with a younger-cheaper Calvin Pickard. Either way, we need one to step up, and my prediction here would be: Calvin Pickard uprooting the starting spot from Varlamov half way through the season and we roll with him.
Out of these players, these are the “perfect predictions”, meaning they can hit these numbers and outcomes if they play hard and have good health and a little puck luck. Does that happen every game…? No, absolutely not but these are realistic predictions that could be reached with a few things that go our way. No matter how you slice it, the Avs have struggled the past two seasons and that ultimately falls on their big guys, so every player I listed above – regardless of my predictions, need to step their game up if they want to win here in Colorado.
